Four Liverpool stars sent Premier League title warning with what they did at Norwich City
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Liverpool had unprecedented issues for shots on target last season but Roberto Firmino, Diogo Jota, Sadio Mane and Mohamed Salah appear to have consigned those problems to history
The statistical analysis of football grows ever more complex with every passing year.
The level of data available to amateur analysts is more detailed than ever before, and it’s possible to investigate so many aspects of the sport that remained unobtainable until very recently.
However, there is still plenty to be said for the more simplistic metrics, as some can tell us about as much as expected goals can, without the need for complex mathematical models and decimal points.
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Take, for instance, the humble shot on target.
If we disregard own goals for the sake of argument, as they only account for around three per cent of the overall total, then how many shots each team puts on target will go a long way to determining the outcome of a match.
And on a longer term, larger sample basis shots on target can be even more insightful.
The league table will generally finish with teams in roughly the same position as if they were sorted by the difference between how many shots on target they took and how many they allowed the opposition.
The top five clubs in the 2020/21 Premier League table were also the top quintet for shots on target difference, with four of the next five best teams for this particular stat also finishing in the top half of the division.
Building sides who have a strong balance for shots on target at each end of the field has been a hallmark of Jurgen Klopp’s career. His Dortmund team were excellent in this area, as were his Liverpool side.
In each of the German’s first four full seasons in England, the Reds had somewhere between 121 and 129 shots on target more than their collective league opponents (around 3.3 per game) and only had fewer than the team they were facing in 16 of their 152 matches in that period.
But their impressive consistency fell away significantly in 2020/21, thanks to the constant stream of injuries and the frequent changes they inflicted upon the Liverpool side.
Klopp’s team only had 70 shots on target more than they conceded, and more problematically they had fewer than their opponents on 11 occasions.
Liverpool took just nine points from those matches, illustrating just how costly being outshot for on target efforts can be.
Having accumulated a shots on target difference of 45 across their first 29 league games of the campaign, they then posted a figure of 25 for the final nine matches, and only conceded more than they took once (at Burnley, where they won 3-0 anyway).
This trend has continued into the new season, while acknowledging that 2021/22 only amounts to a single game at this point.
Liverpool had eight shots on target while allowing only three on Saturday. We can get technical, thanks to Statsbomb’s data on FBRef, and note that the post-shot expected goal figures were 1.6 to 1.0 in the Reds’ favour if we wish, but what is more pertinent is that history shows teams having five shots on target more than their opponents win around three quarters of the time.
From Klopp’s perspective, another encouraging aspect of his team’s performance at Norwich was that his four senior forwards each tested Tim Krul in the Canaries’ goal at least once.
Mohamed Salah and Diogo Jota had two attempts on target each, while Sadio Mane and Roberto Firmino (with his only shot of the match) had one apiece.
Joel Matip and Kostas Tsimikas also had a shot on target each to complete the set, but really this match was all about the current Fab Four.
This was the third league match in which the quartet all had a shot on target, and the first on the road following the home games with Sheffield United and Newcastle last season.
It’s a chain reaction Klopp will hope can continue throughout 2021/22.
The more shots on target the forwards fire, the more the team as a whole will have, and with Virgil van Dijk and company preventing them at the back, Liverpool will remain very competitive at the top end of the Premier League.
#francischbydpost #Sports #sportsNews
The statistical analysis of football grows ever more complex with every passing year.
The level of data available to amateur analysts is more detailed than ever before, and it’s possible to investigate so many aspects of the sport that remained unobtainable until very recently.
However, there is still plenty to be said for the more simplistic metrics, as some can tell us about as much as expected goals can, without the need for complex mathematical models and decimal points.
PROMOTED STORIES
Take, for instance, the humble shot on target.
If we disregard own goals for the sake of argument, as they only account for around three per cent of the overall total, then how many shots each team puts on target will go a long way to determining the outcome of a match.
And on a longer term, larger sample basis shots on target can be even more insightful.
The league table will generally finish with teams in roughly the same position as if they were sorted by the difference between how many shots on target they took and how many they allowed the opposition.
The top five clubs in the 2020/21 Premier League table were also the top quintet for shots on target difference, with four of the next five best teams for this particular stat also finishing in the top half of the division.
Building sides who have a strong balance for shots on target at each end of the field has been a hallmark of Jurgen Klopp’s career. His Dortmund team were excellent in this area, as were his Liverpool side.
In each of the German’s first four full seasons in England, the Reds had somewhere between 121 and 129 shots on target more than their collective league opponents (around 3.3 per game) and only had fewer than the team they were facing in 16 of their 152 matches in that period.
But their impressive consistency fell away significantly in 2020/21, thanks to the constant stream of injuries and the frequent changes they inflicted upon the Liverpool side.
Klopp’s team only had 70 shots on target more than they conceded, and more problematically they had fewer than their opponents on 11 occasions.
Liverpool took just nine points from those matches, illustrating just how costly being outshot for on target efforts can be.
Having accumulated a shots on target difference of 45 across their first 29 league games of the campaign, they then posted a figure of 25 for the final nine matches, and only conceded more than they took once (at Burnley, where they won 3-0 anyway).
This trend has continued into the new season, while acknowledging that 2021/22 only amounts to a single game at this point.
Liverpool had eight shots on target while allowing only three on Saturday. We can get technical, thanks to Statsbomb’s data on FBRef, and note that the post-shot expected goal figures were 1.6 to 1.0 in the Reds’ favour if we wish, but what is more pertinent is that history shows teams having five shots on target more than their opponents win around three quarters of the time.
From Klopp’s perspective, another encouraging aspect of his team’s performance at Norwich was that his four senior forwards each tested Tim Krul in the Canaries’ goal at least once.
Mohamed Salah and Diogo Jota had two attempts on target each, while Sadio Mane and Roberto Firmino (with his only shot of the match) had one apiece.
Joel Matip and Kostas Tsimikas also had a shot on target each to complete the set, but really this match was all about the current Fab Four.
This was the third league match in which the quartet all had a shot on target, and the first on the road following the home games with Sheffield United and Newcastle last season.
It’s a chain reaction Klopp will hope can continue throughout 2021/22.
The more shots on target the forwards fire, the more the team as a whole will have, and with Virgil van Dijk and company preventing them at the back, Liverpool will remain very competitive at the top end of the Premier League.
#francischbydpost #Sports #sportsNews
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francischbyd
gregutalor:
I have been paid . hope u were paid?
gregutalor
I have been paid . hope u were paid?
am already paid, let continue with it together